September 15, 2005

• <孫與沙比奧>
  
  前天 史提芬.拉揮特 在港大的演講, 提及一班後起之秀, 其中一人是 澤西.薩比奧 (jesse. shapiro). 拉揮特所引用他的文章, 題目叫 “media bias and reputation”. 聽下聽下, 覺得內容大綱似曾相識… 嘩! 和 詠.孫 的 “The Self-Perpetuation of Biased Beliefs” – 曾經在 uncertainy and information 講解的文章 – 十分相似呀. 兩篇文章, (大概) 也解釋為何人類會選擇與自己先入為主意見相近似的報章來看. 還記得當日 詠.孫 的例子是 : 我只會看蘋果而不會看大公報, 文匯報…

  
  

  還記得史老在諾貝爾的演講說重要的科學發展, 通常是同一時間在不同地方有人發現相同的事情/發現. 噢噢噢…

  
  

  以下是 “media…” 的節錄 :
  
  A Bayesian consumer who is uncertain about the quality of an information source will infer that the source is of higher quality when its reports conform to the consumer’s prior expectations. We use this fact to build a model of media bias in which firms slant their reports toward the prior beliefs of their customers in order to build a reputation for quality. Bias emerges in our model even though it can make all market participants worse off. The model predicts that bias will be less severe when consumers receive independent evidence on the true state of the world, and that competition between independently owned news outlets can reduce bias. We present a variety of empirical evidence consistent with these predictions.

  
  

  詠.孫 “self-…” 的節錄 :
  
  To overcome strong prior beliefs, strong evidence to the contrary is needed. If a person is predisposed to choosing a certain action, the advice from an advisor who sets a low threshold for recommending the alternative action is not of much use. The preference for like-minded advisors who supply coarse information implies that the advice a person receives is likely to reinforce his existing priors. This effect can lead to polarisation of opinion and the emergence of self-serving beliefs. The learning process is prolonged and the induced short run bias can become perpetual if information is costly.
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  <哈>
  
  卡露蓮, 我真係唔為意宋生訓著左… 哈哈哈哈哈. 佢搞金融對經濟點會有興趣.
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  <鋼之大膽推測>
  
  室友原來有鋼之鍊金術師的漫畫 - 個陣我叫呢套野做 “鍊金之魔術師”… – 看了六期, 和室友推測 <鋼> 的結局起來. 個人認為, 愛德華最後沒有令媽媽復活 – <鋼> 的中心思想是 (1) 等價交換 及 (2) 人死不能復生 – 這是第一期的重心, 之後許多人 (如愛德華的師傅) 也反覆說著同樣的道理. 不理你有什么賢者之石, 但這的道理是不會改變.

  
  

  室友說 : 如是者, 既然不能成功, 為何人類要禁止用鍊金術來令死人復活? 而 “真理” 又究竟是什么? 只看到第六期的我, 暫時未能想出一個合理的解釋. 我想, 令人類復活未必不可行, 只是那個交換一定不是 “等價” – 即後果可以很嚴重…

  
  

  至於愛德華的手腳及弟弟能否回復人類的模樣, 我想這是可以做到, 但最後二人會選擇拒絕回復舊有的模樣.
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  <午飯時間>
  
  今天和 TH 吃午飯, 一為神功一為弟子. 很好很好. 在大學見到許多卜卜脆的 FRESHMAN… 美女, 俱往矣~

  • 11:46 am
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