再取材的話, 這裏大概變成季刊了...
希望大家牛年身體健康.
至於牛市, 唔使旨意.
(近半年好像特別多取材日子吧...)
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新春附送 :投資錦囊
問1. 究竟幾時買得股票?
答1. 這是大概過去一年, 我最常遇到的問題.
7000-8000 點.
係 恒指 唔係 道指.
由二萬五點一直叫人沽貨走貨走到今日, 親戚朋友一直當我耳邊風. 好些仲話同 六行三保 一齊共存亡.
共存亡. 世上沒有什么值得與你共存亡.
如果你要d 簡單d 既野, 相信 50 天 (俾d 多做 trading 既人), 或者 100 天移動平均線 (長線投資者).
恒指從下穿上 移動平均線, 入貨; 從上穿落 移動平均線, 走人
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問2. 好了, 幾時買得匯豐?
答2. 這也是大概過去一星期, 我最常遇到的問題.
我前兩日發左以下一個電郵俾朋友 (當時匯豐只有 $55)
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Some background information on HSBC
- Peak $150+ (dropped about 60% from there; Most US financials lost over 90% e.g. Citigroup)
- Dropped for 8 consecutive trading days
- Historical Dividend Yield :12.8% (past dividend with current price; pls expect a dividend cut or even NO dividend)
- Broker Forecast : $49 (Goldman Sachs), $52 (Morgan Stanley)
My opinion
(1) Short term trader
- I have no opinion for you. You won't listen anyway
- A $3-$5 rebound in the coming few days could be expected (short-covering)
(2) Long term investors
Technical indicators
- Look carefully this chart
http://hk.finance.yahoo.com/q/
--- Whenever the Blue line (spot price) cut the RED line (100 moving average) from below; AND
--- The 100 moving average line is moving upward
--- Sell the stock when the Blue Line cut the Red Line from above
The 100 line is well above the current price line right now
Fundamentals
- HSBC is too large to assess. I can't
- But the more problematic thing is, HSBC is such a giant bank, and this makes it very very difficult to understand what it is going on within the bank
- Market paid a premium for premium management of HSBC. But basically, its management disappears in the past 2 weeks and i am very disappointed
- There are strong profiteering reasons for brokers to make downbeat comments on HSBC (in forecasting the stock price they are almost always wrong, but they just cannot be ignored)
- UK's housing problem and the impact is not less serious than in US (HSBC is a UK bank)
Causal observation
- Tony Messar (in Next magazine) and Prof Tsang Yun Chong (City University) were once very bullish supporters of HSBC. They NOW turn bearish/ less certain on the future of HSBC
- Whenever small investors still ask whether the bottom has arrived, the bottom has yet arrived. I am serious. This is the observation by Chief Economist in Merrill Lynch, and by some researchers studying japan and taiwan's stock markets since 90s
Conclusion :
(1) Wait until the price cut the 100 moving average from BELOW
(2) I really understand HSBC is always a top favorite for Hong Kong investors, and seldom will anyone buy stocks haven't once owned any HSBC stocks. But we should not fall in love with any particular stocks, unless you won't care about the return
(3) I may buy 400 shares when it is $40
(4) Please stay patient with me, and wait until both economic fundamentals and technical parameters come out of the trough
